Pitching+ Leaderboard From The 2026 Arizona Fall League

Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals

• Pitching+: 127
• Stuff+: 118
• Location+: 105

The results to date don’t back this, but Susana has impressed the model with his combination of elite stuff and location.

Susana’s arsenal is the best per our Stuff+ model, which comes as no surprise to anyone reading this. His four-seam fastball has sat at 101 mph over 110 pitches with a Stuff+ score of 115. His sinker rates as tops in the AFL, while his mid-to-high-80s curveball is arguably the best breaking ball in the league this season. While Susana’s Location+ scores are somewhat surprising, keep in mind that he’s being compared to the rest of the Fall League, which, as a circuit, is not known for its precision pitching.

Susana has elite stuff and below-average control, which will likely push him to the bullpen long term. 

Tekoah Roby, RHP, Cardinals 

• Pitching+: 119
• Stuff+: 105
• Location+: 118

After missing all of 2026 due to Tommy John surgery, Roby has returned in a big way in the AFL. Over 9.2 innings, he hasn’t allowed a run on six hits and a walk while posting 13 strikeouts.

Roby has flashed above-average Stuff+ scores, but it’s his plus location data that has really separated him from the pack. His four-seam fastball has averaged 96.1 mph with the same shape as his pre-injury fastball. Spin is up across his pitch mix, too, which is an encouraging sign, since the AFL uses the MLB ball.

Roby’s curveball doesn’t grade highly on this model, but it’s produced excellent results, including a 57.9% whiff rate. The split-changeup is his highest-rated pitch by Stuff+ and one of the highest-graded in the AFL. Its 131 Stuff+ is supported by a 33.3% whiff rate.

Already on the 40-man roster, there’s a real chance Roby could debut with the Cardinals early in 2027. And if he’s pitching the way he is now, he could perhaps even force his way into the rotation. 

Joshua Quezada, RHP, Brewers

• Pitching+: 118
• Stuff+: 108
• Location+: 110

Originally signed by the Yankees out of Nicaragua in January 2023, Quezada went to the Brewers in February 2024 for Clayton Andrews. After a few middling seasons working as a reliever, Quezada is Rule 5-eligible this offseason and highly unlikely to be protected. This season, Quezada endured a brutal April and May before buckling down in June. Over his final 24 outings, he went 6-0 with four saves, a 2.54 ERA and 45 strikeouts to 12 walks over 39 innings.

Quezada has continued to pitch well during his AFL tenure. His Stuff+ scores and strong performance the past several months would seem to be a product of his plus sweeper. The pitch sits in the low 80s with outlier ride for a sweeper, getting an average of 10 inches of induced vertical break and -9.3 inches of horizontal movement. It’s my model’s fourth-highest-graded sweeper with a score of 114 and has a 40% whiff rate so far in AFL play.

Quezada also threw a changeup in the regular season, but he’s not used it in the AFL, instead relying on his sweeper, four-seam fastball and sinker. 

Braxton Bragg, RHP, Orioles

• Pitching+: 116
• Stuff+: 100
• Location+: 122

Bragg’s breakout 2025 season was cut short by injury, as the righthander had Tommy John surgery. He missed the final three months of last year and all of the 2026 regular season.

Encouragingly, Bragg has returned in the Arizona Fall League and pitched well. Over 13 innings, he owns a 2.77 ERA with nine strikeouts to two walks. His location scores have been excellent, which is a good sign coming off of Tommy John surgery.

Bragg is throwing the same five pitches post-injury, with a mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, sweeper and changeup. The four-seamer has lost about a tick of velocity and some ride, while his sinker has lost four-plus inches of armside run and some sink. His cutter is harder with more of a true cutter shape, as it adds ride and true cut. His sweeper is a little softer and has lost a little horizontal break, while his changeup looks similar to how it did before the surgery.

Bragg will need to be protected on Baltimore’s 40-man roster this offseason or else he’ll be Rule 5-eligible. 

Luke Fox, LHP, Dodgers

• Pitching+: 112
• Stuff+: 106
• Location+: 106

Drafted out of Duke in the 2023 17th round, Fox will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this winter unless he is protected at the deadline. He’s dealt with injuries throughout his career, missing large chunks of time in 2026.

Fox throws four pitches: a four-seam fastball, cutter, sweeper and changeup. The fastball is his highest-graded Stuff+ pitch, averaging around 93-94 mph with an angle that plays up from his lower slot. He locates the pitch at a plus level, and it’s helped him to drive a 35.9% whiff rate so far in the AFL.

Fox’s second-best pitch is his sweeper, which sits 82-83 mph with 10-11 inches of sweep. It boasts a 46.7% whiff rate in the desert and has become a bigger part of his arsenal over time. 

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