Top 20 MLB Free Agent Starting Pitchers For 2027

Baseball America’s data-driven coverage of MLB’s free agent season continues with the best starting pitchers available this year, complete with projected contracts for all players expected to receive $10 million or more.

• Top 50 MLB Free Agents For 2027
• Top 100 Prospects
• Top 30 Prospects For Every Team

We’ll look at players through a Statcast lens, while also considering on-field performance. Players expected to receive larger salaries are compared to similar free agents to get a better sense of their market value.

1. Tarik Skubal (Age: 30, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 8 Years, $370M

Skubal completed his fourth consecutive season with a K% of 30% or better and maintained his elite 4.4% walk rate. He’s the clear-cut, no-doubt prize of this year’s free agent class, with top-shelf performance, stuff and command. Over the last three seasons, he’s struck out 655 in 546 innings, with a 2.42 ERA, 2.48 FIP, 2.73 xFIP and 2.82 SIERA. No matter how you slice it, he’s the textbook definition of an ace.

Let’s compare him to some recent mega-contracts awarded to top-tier SPs:

Skubal is roughly in the same tier as Cole was at the time. If we extrapolate a 5% salary inflation for seven years, we get a roughly $46-48M AAV projection for Skubal based on Cole’s contract. Snell and Burnes, both a tier below Skubal, received at least $35M in annual average value, further supporting a $45M+ AAV for Skubal, as a clear tier above.

There aren’t any other top-tier aces in this year’s class, giving Skubal extra leverage. A bidding war like there was for Juan Soto could push this way up.

2. Freddy Peralta (Age: 30, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 5 Years, $125M

Peralta’s 2026 was a step back in terms of performance, but he closed the season strong, with FIRE seeing a large uptick in stuff quality after his trade to the Rays:

Prior to 2026, Peralta had recorded three consecutive seasons with 200-plus strikeouts—a rare feat in today’s game. Here are a couple free agent comps for Peralta to consider:

Aaron Nola (Age: 31, 2024 FA Class, Signed for 7 years, $172M)

Nola is the closest comp among pitchers with three straight 200-strikeout seasons. The caveat is that Nola’s 2023 season saw a dropoff in ERA, but not in strikeouts, whereas Peralta failed to get to 200 strikeouts in 2026.

Eduardo Rodriguez (Age: 30, 2024 FA Class, Signed for 4 years, $80M)

Rodriguez was a former 200-strikeout guy whose rate dipped in his walk year but still posted a solid ERA. He represents a low-end projection.

Peralta is not quite on the level of Cease, and Nola perhaps had situational leverage with the Phillies, where they really didn’t want to lose him. We feel he’ll get roughly $25M a year over five years, or a smaller AAV if he pushes for a longer deal.

3. Trevor Rogers (Age: 29, UFA, Qualifying offer eligible, expected to decline)

• Contract Projection: 5 Years, $115M

Rogers relies on plus command of his entire arsenal to compete, and in many ways, resembles Ranger Suárez last season as a crafty lefty with a wide, well-commanded arsenal but low-octane velocity.

Suárez’s track record last season was far more complete than Rogers’, as he was coming off a five-season, 694-inning run with a 3.25 ERA. If teams were to only look at Rogers’ final two seasons in Baltimore, they’d see a similar 3.16 ERA, as well as very similar K%.

Suárez signed for five years and $130M. We think that his superior track record puts Rogers a tick behind, so we’ve adjusted his projection to be roughly $3M AAV below Suárez.

4. Michael King (Age: 31, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 4 Years, $85M

King surprisingly declined the remaining two years, $58M left on his player option. On the surface, his 2026 was spectacular: 185 innings with a 3.21 ERA, which was basically on par with his career 3.23 ERA.

Under the hood, the picture isn’t quite as rosy. His two primary pitches both rate as below average from a stuff perspective, though he rates as above average when including locations. ERA estimators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) were decidedly pessimistic:

The best recent comp for King is Luis Severino in the 2025 free agent class. They are remarkably similar across a variety of vectors.

Both are sinker/sweeper pitchers with injury histories. Other than their ERAs, they share almost identical metrics across the board. Severino got three years, $67 million, and King should be in the same ballpark. Given what he declined, we’ll assume he’s looking for a longer-term pact.

5. Adrián Morejón (Age: 28, UFA, Qualifying Offer Eligible, might accept if offered)

• Contract Projection: 3 Years, $60M

FIRE, my pitching model, thinks that Morejón has four plus-plus pitches, with an elite slider and changeup. Here’s his Stuff+ from FanGraphs:

StuffPro concurs on the changeup and slider but thinks the sinker is plus-plus and the fastball is closer to average. PitchPro, which includes locations, is even more bullish than FIRE, with the changeup rating as 2.7 RV/100 better than average, the slider, 2.0 RV/100 better than average and the fastball 2.2 RV/100 better than average. The sinker came in at 1.3 RV/100 better.

Here’s Pitch Profiler’s view:

Here’s Past The Eye Test‘s view:

At the time of writing, there are no confirmed reports of Morejón being converted to a starter. However, the evidence for him as a strong candidate is overwhelming. Every single pitch model sees him with four plus-or-better pitches with plus command.

Coming up through the minors, Morejón was a starter, and he excelled in that role. While his stuff will likely take a step back if he’s in the rotation, it would still be good even with “just” a 97-98 mph fastball.

Morejón gained a couple of ticks on his fastball in 2026, but he also developed as a pitcher. Here’s what his arsenal looked like in 2025, when he wasn’t throwing quite as hard:

The key things to focus on here were the promising four-seam fastball he seldom threw, as well as the 91 mph split change that was good, but not amazing. Fast forward to 2026:

Morejón’s changeup added a ton of depth, and he started throwing his fastball a lot more. The changeup rates so well that it’s possibly one of the best singular pitches in all of baseball, even if it lost a tick of velocity. FIRE considered it by far and away the best pure-stuff changeup in baseball last season:

What Morejón is worth and what he will get may not line up. There’s huge upside here, with a full starter’s arsenal and the potential for 150 to 160 high-quality innings. He also has a natural fallback as an ace closer, a role he would have assumed if not for Mason Miller’s presence.

While it wouldn’t be a shock to see a team go five years and upwards of $90M, most contracts in this vein (Clay Holmes three years, $48M, Jordan Hicks four years, $44M and Reynaldo Lopez three years, $30M) don’t reach that high.

Morejón is on another level in terms of stuff and is likely worth at least $15M/year as a high-leverage arm as a floor.

6. Kevin Gausman (Age: 36, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 1 Year, $27.5M or 2 Years, $50M

Gausman’s ERA spiked to 4.51, but every other indicator was stable. While he is contemplating retirement, his fastball velocity and stuff metrics are in line with previous years, with arguably superior fastball execution in 2026.

Gausman’s FIP, xFIP and SIERA all point to a season in line with 2025 and superior to 2024, strongly supporting the notion that his ERA was more due to bad luck than any performance decline.

Nathan Eovaldi was broadly similar to Gausman as a splitter-heavy pitcher, with very similar peripheral numbers and top-line performance. He received a three-year, $75M contract heading into his age-35 season.

Gausman has expressed that he may retire, so a one-year deal may be appealing to him. He’ll command an AAV of at least $25M per year.

7. Sonny Gray (Age: 37, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 2 Years, $50M

Gray reduced the usage of his fastball by about 5% and upped his cutter usage by the same amount. This made his fastball trio more effective, as his four-seam was the worst of the three pitches. His surface-level ERA was spectacular, but strangely, it came with a corresponding drop in K%-BB%.

No matter how you slice it, Gray looks like a 3.50 ERA pitcher, a level he’s maintained over his last 1000 innings, as well as his first 1000 innings.

He’s in the same boat as Gausman and should get at least $25M per year. Given the lack of proven No. 2 starter options outside of the top group, we could see this pushed closer to $28-29M AAV for both Gray and Gausman.

8. Kaima Taira (Age: 27, Expected to be posted)

• Contract Projection: 3 Years, $50M

Per Yakyu Cosmopolitan, many clubs were on hand to scout Taira, who projects as the premier arm coming over from NPB this season:

There are questions about Taira’s fastball quality, as well as how his 5-foot-8 stature will translate to the major leagues. This is somewhat similar to questions teams had about Tatsuya Imai last season, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Kodai Senga. Let’s see how Taira stacks up against those two, as well as Shota Imanaga, looking at their final seasons in NPB.

Taira’s closest comp is Imai in terms of age, recency and performance, but he lacks the long track record as a starter that Imai had. Taira also hasn’t posted top-shelf strikeout numbers, giving him a couple of risk factors that other recent NPB free agents did not have. We expect him to get a contract a little below what Imai received last offseason.

9. Foster Griffin (Age: 31, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 3 Years, $48M

Every week for Statcast Standouts, I look at various arsenals and how they work together. Griffin has six distinct clusters, and I’m not sure I’ve seen anything like it. It’s like someone drew two parallel lines, and then picked three equidistant spots to target each pitch. Do not be fooled by the poor arsenal scores—those are exceptional for a pitcher with a primary fastball in the low 90s.

Griffin’s kitchen-sink approach was quite effective, and his 3.60 ERA was well supported by a 3.96 FIP, 3.76 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA.

Griffin is very similar to Seth Lugo, who received three years, $45M a few seasons ago. He’ll be worth $20-25M per season as an average starter, but his low-end velo and lack of a long track record will likely dampen his market.

10. Clay Holmes (Age: 34, $12M Player Option, expected to decline)

• Contract Projection: 2 Years, $36M

Holmes transitioned to a starter role, and he’s excelled with a simple formula: generate a ton of ground balls and don’t give up any home runs. He lost about 4 mph of velocity with the transition, but his sinker gets so much seam-shifted wake depth that it’s still a highly effective pitch. FIRE fully buys into the performance, seeing him as an above-average arm, and he should continue to provide a mid-3s ERA, and 120 to 160 innings.

Holmes is likely to outperform an $18M AAV, but he has injury issues, a short track record as a starter and relies on contact management to succeed.

11. Shota Imanaga (Age: 33, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 2 Years, $36M

Imanaga has now accumulated 492 innings with a 3.45 ERA, and his strikeout rate climbed back up to 24.6% with impeccable command. He should be a reliable source of a sub-4.00 ERA and around 170 innings.

Imanaga continues to pitch well, but his stuff is not what it was when he came over from NPB. If it ticks back up, he could be a massive bargain.

12. Tyler Mahle (Age: 32, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 1 year, $20M

Mahle’s season was a resurgence of sorts, if you can call an almost exactly 4.00 ERA a resurgence. He gets by with a solid fastball/splitter pair, with the occasional cutter and slider, all of which grade out as plus when accounting for location quality. Mahle’s career ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all right around 4.00, and he can be expected to perform around that level for the next few years.

Mahle isn’t exciting, but having a reliable arm that can get you 5-6 innings a night is a valuable commodity. He’s essentially a tier below the Gausman/Gray veteran option. He could sign for three years, $45M if he’s looking for longer-term security.

13. Michael Soroka (Age: 29, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 1 Year, $16M

Soroka posted a fantastic 3.41 ERA, well supported by a 3.19 FIP, 3.69 xFIP and 3.70 SIERA. FIRE sees four above-average pitches and may not fully grasp the benefits of the three-fastball approach (fastball, cutter and sinker). The challenge is that his 116 innings in 2026 were the most he’s thrown since 2019. If teams had confidence they’d get at least 120 innings from him next year, he’d be sixth on this list.

Given his injury history, teams will be reluctant to offer him a long-term deal. Similarly, Soroka may want another one-year deal to better build his case for next offseason. He could be a huge value if he manages to throw 150 innings.

14. Casey Mize (Age: 29, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 2 Years, $28 Million

A below-average fastball with a decent slider and inconsistent splitter adds up to a solid rotation piece. Mize does just enough that he’ll post a low 4s ERA, making him a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter.

Mize is young, has pedigree as a former top prospect and has been a steady, if unspectacular rotation option for three seasons.

15. Nick Martinez (Age: 36, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 1 Year, $13 Million

Martinez struck out 5.45 batters per nine innings, good for a paltry 15.1% K%. The result? A 3.10 ERA over 180 innings. Even weirder, it came with just a 35.5% groundball rate. Was this just tremendous luck? FIRE thinks he earned the performance, rating the sinker as 0.48 runs/100 better than the average pitch when including locations. In fact, over 704 innings since 2022, Martinez has pitched to a 3.53 ERA.

How do you value a pitcher who’s seen his K% go from 23.0% to 20.4% to 17.0% to 15.1%, yet somehow still performs at a high level? Even stranger, his fastball velo increased in 2026. We’re not sure, but we’ll say he gets the same contract as he had last year.

16. Hiromi Itoh (Age: 29, Expected to be Posted)

• Contract Projection: 2 Years, $22M

Itoh’s fastball is closer to 92-93 mph, with a pedestrian 10.7% SwStr% (whiffs/pitch). These are the main drivers pushing his ranking here. From a velocity and NPB performance standpoint, he’s better than Tomoyuki Sugano (one year, $13M) but more broadly similar to Kohei Arihara (two years, $6.2M).

There’s a broad range of possibilities here, but we feel he’ll get something in the Sugano range over two seasons.

17. Dustin May (Age: 29, UFA)

• Contract Projection: 1 Year, $12.5 Million

May continues to have dominant stuff and subpar on-field performance. In the last two seasons, he’s thrown 278 innings with a 4.82 ERA with less than a strikeout per inning and a FIP/xFIP around 4.22. It suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky but also not very good.

Let’s compare FIRE to StuffPro from Baseball Prospectus (we’ve flipped the sign on their numbers to align, positive being good for the pitcher).

This shows broad consensus of two to three very good pitches and five pitches that are at least average, both from a stuff and a stuff+location perspective.

FanGraphs has May with an overall Stuff+ of 102 along with a 103 Location+ and a 106 Pitching+—very good numbers for a starter. Of pitchers who threw 140 or more innings, he ranked 24th in Pitching+, 38th in Location+ and 29th in Stuff+.

What’s even more confounding is that he’s spent time with the Red Sox, Dodgers and Brewers in the last two years. Those are teams with good pitching dev reputation, and none could coax the best out of him.

Some team is going to take a chance on May. He returns as essentially the same pitcher he was last year, but with fewer durability concerns. If he’s able to put it all together, he has ace potential.

Let’s finish things out with a rapid-fire look at a few more starting pitchers of note:

18. Kris Bubic (Age: 29, UFA)

Bubic’s stuff took a step back last year, but he maintained the 24.8% K% of his breakout 2025. He’s never thrown more than 130 innings in a season, so durability is a large concern. He might get double digits somewhere, as a healthy Bubic could be a very effective rotation piece, even for just 120 innings.

19. Matthew Boyd (Age: 36, UFA)

Boyd’s stuff declined, as did his strikeout rate, but he somehow managed to eke out a 3.91 ERA with decent xFIP, FIP and SIERA. He’s a solid back-of-the-rotation option.

20. Jack Flaherty (Age: 31, UFA)

This is perhaps a pessimistic ranking of Flaherty, who still puts up strong strikeout numbers. However, in three of the last four seasons, he’s put up an ERA of at least 4.48, with his dominant 2024 looking like the outlier. ERA estimators were particularly pessimistic last season, as you can see in the below snapshot from FanGraphs.

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