The Padres have some clarity on a couple of bullpen pieces. The team has picked up their $2.5MM club option on Kyle Hart, while left-hander Yuki Matsui has declined to exercise his opt-out clause, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Hart is now under control for 2027, while Matsui still has a $7MM player option for 2028.
Matsui is the more consequential of the two players. Since making his MLB debut with the Padres in 2024, he’s delivered 190 innings of relief with a solid 3.17 earned run average and above-average 25.1% strikeout rate. He’s also been durable, making just one trip to the 15-day injured list – a one-month stint early this year for a groin strain. Matsui has thrown at least 62 2/3 innings in each of his three seasons with the Padres and ranks 20th among qualified relievers since 2024 with the 190-inning total.
This year was an anomaly for Matsui in a few ways. For one thing, he lowered his ERA to an excellent 1.83, over two runs better than in 2025. He also cut back on the long ball after struggling in that area before, allowing less than one homer per nine, while recording a 26.2% strikeout rate. Despite working with below-average velocity, Matsui excelled at limiting hard contact. Statcast ranked him in the 90th percentile of average exit velocity (86.8 mph) and the 95th percentile of hard-hit rate (30.5%). Matsui’s 3.02 xERA and 4.17 SIERA weren’t quite as rosy, but on the surface, he was a solid reliever for San Diego.
The operative words there are “on the surface.” While Matsui did well from a strikeout perspective, his walk rate continued a three-year upward trend and reached 13.8%, which Statcast puts in just the third percentile. He also ran into a lot of good luck. Major league hitters batted .290 on balls in play this year. Matsui’s BABIP was just .204, so he could be due for serious regression next year.
Matsui also stranded an impossibly high 93.6% of opposing baserunners, whereas the league average strand rate is over 20% lower. The underlying data points to Matsui being a decent middle reliever with an ERA in the mid to high-3.00s, and that’s where he could end up next year when the batted ball luck normalizes.
Between the questionable underlying metrics and the impending lockout, there’s a lot of sense in Matsui sticking with the Padres. In theory, he could have a stronger season in 2027, decline the ensuing $7MM player option, and then look for a multi-year deal with a higher guarantee. For now, Matsui and fellow southpaw Wandy Peralta are locked in as middle relievers next year, and the Padres can instead focus on rebuilding their rotation as well as attempting to re-sign premium lefty Adrian Morejon.
Turning to Hart, it’s a bit of a surprise to see the Padres pick up his option, as he’ll now earn more than double his 2026 salary despite underwhelming recent results. The 33-year-old lefty (34 later this month) has mostly worked as a reliever for San Diego, with a handful of opener appearances mixed in. He pitched 43 innings with an ERA near 6.00 last year while being shuffled up and down from the minors. He struggled with the long ball but showed better-than-average control. Hart’s 4.41 SIERA and 3.67 ERA were much kinder than the 5.86 ERA, though his 5.18 FIP suggested that Hart was still struggling regardless of the defense behind him.
Hart elected free agency last November but quickly rejoined the Padres on a $1.2MM guarantee. This year’s performance was a step in the right direction. Hart still posted a 4.92 ERA in 64 innings, but he managed to increase his strikeout rate to 22.0% and, crucially, his ground ball rate to an elite 51.7% clip. Both xERA (3.63) and SIERA (3.94) saw him as unlucky, and unlike last year, this time Hart backed those up with a 3.63 FIP.
He’s not elite, far from it actually, but between the ground ball rate and how well he limits hard contact (95th percentile by hard-hit rate), Hart is an interesting low-cost flyer for the Padres as they try to maintain continuity in the bullpen aside from the possible departure of Morejon. Matsui, Peralta, and Hart were worth 1.4 fWAR combined this year, and they’ll make a combined $13.45MM in 2027.
Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images
