How Baseball America values the 2026–27 class
The World Series is over, and the free-agent market is next. Baseball America is opening its coverage of the 2026–27 class with a ranking of the 50 best available players, followed by position-by-position reviews explaining the reasoning behind each projection. The rankings combine recent contract data, player metrics and consensus estimates of value. Each notable free agent is measured against recent players at the same position, with age, performance and player type all informing an estimated market price. That’s a useful framework, though no model can make the market’s surprises disappear. The analysis draws on Baseball Savant, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference, bringing several views of player value into one estimate. Contract decisions add another layer of uncertainty. Baseball America makes an informed prediction for unresolved opt-outs, opt-ins and qualifying offers, and expects some of those calls to be wrong. Michael King, for instance, was initially projected to stay put; after he became a free agent, the ranking was updated to include him. The publication assumes one side will decline every mutual option. For readers following the broader pipeline, Baseball America also has its Top 100 Prospects, Top 30 Prospects For Every Team and 2027 Draft Rankings. The opening list includes projected contracts for every player expected to command at least $10 million, with tiers to call out notable names. Here’s the first look at the market.Top 50 MLB Free Agents
Projected free-agent contracts
The top of this 2026 free-agent projection is dominated by starting pitching. Tarik Skubal leads the list at age 30, with an eight-year, $370 million estimate. Freddy Peralta, Trevor Rogers and Michael King also rank among the first seven, while the biggest position-player projections belong to Jazz Chisholm and Seiya Suzuki.| Rank | Name | Pos | Age | Projected contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | SP | 30 | 8 years / $370M |
| 2 | Jazz Chisholm | 2B | 29 | 3 years / $110M or 7 years / $185M |
| 3 | Seiya Suzuki | RF | 32 | 4 years / $125M or 5 years / $150M |
| 4 | Randy Arozarena | LF | 32 | 4 years / $110M or 5 years / $130M |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | SP | 30 | 5 years / $125M |
| 6 | Trevor Rogers | SP | 29 | 5 years / $115M |
| 7 | Michael King | SP | 31 | 4 years / $85M |
| 8 | Teruaki Sato | 3B | 27 | 4 years / $65M |
| 9 | Ian Happ | LF | 32 | 3 years / $70M |
| 10 | Kevin Gausman | SP | 36 | 1 year / $27.5M or 2 years / $50M |
| 11 | Sonny Gray | SP | 37 | 2 years / $50M |
| 12 | Brandon Lowe | 2B | 32 | 3 years / $63M |
| 13 | Adrián Morejón | SP | 28 | 3 years / $60M |
| 14 | David Bednar | RP | 32 | 3 years / $54M |
| 15 | Ryan Jeffers | C | 29 | 4 years / $62M or 5 years / $75M, might accept a QO |
| 16 | Jake Bauers | 1B | 31 | 3 years / $48M or accepts QO |
| 17 | J.P. Crawford | SS | 32 | QO or 2 years / $32M |
| 18 | Kaima Taira | SP | 27 | 3 years / $50M |
| 19 | Foster Griffin | SP | 31 | 3 years / $48M |
| 20 | Clay Holmes | SP | 34 | 2 years / $36M |
| 21 | Shota Imanaga | SP | 34 | 2 years / $36M |
| 22 | Trent Grisham | CF | 30 | 3 years / $45M |
| 23 | Tyler Mahle | SP | 32 | 1 year / $20M |
| 24 | Ty France | 1B | 32 | 2 years / $28M |
| 25 | Michael Soroka | SP | 29 | 1 year / $16M |
| 26 | Raisel Iglesias | RP | 36 | 1 year / $16M |
| 27 | Casey Mize | SP | 29 | 2 years / $28M |
| 28 | Carson Kelly | C | 32 | 3 years / $32M |
| 29 | Luis Arráez | 2B | 30 | 1 year / $14M |
| 30 | Nick Martinez | SP | 36 | 1 year / $13M |
| 31 | Daulton Varsho | CF | 30 | 2 years / $22M |
| 32 | Hiromi Itoh | SP | 29 | 2 years / $22M |
| 33 | Dustin May | SP | 29 | 1 year / $12.5M |
| 34 | Bryan Abreu | RP | 29 | 1 year / $12.5M |
| 35 | Luis Robert | CF | 29 | 1 year / $12.5M |
| 36 | Gleyber Torres | 2B | 30 | 1 year / $12.5M |
| 37 | George Springer | DH | 37 | 1 year / $12.5M |
| 38 | Joc Pederson | DH | 34 | 1 year / $12M |
| 39 | Taylor Ward | LF | 33 | 1 year / $12.5M |
| 40 | Kris Bubic | SP | 29 | 1 year / $10M |
| 41 | Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 31 | 1 year / $10M |
| 42 | Alec Bohm | 3B | 30 | 1 year / $10.5M or 2 years / $21M |
| 43 | Eugenio Suárez | 3B | 35 | 1 year / $10M |
| 44 | Mauricio Dubón | SS | 32 | 2 years / $15M |
| 45 | Tyler Stephenson | C | 30 | 2 years / $15M |
| 46 | Evan Phillips | RP | 32 | Below $10M |
| 47 | Matthew Boyd | SP | 36 | Below $10M |
| 48 | Cedric Mullins | CF | 32 | Below $10M |
| 49 | Jonathan India | 2B | 30 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Jack Flaherty | SP | 31 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Robbie Ray | SP | 36 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Jeff McNeil | 2B | 35 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Gavin Lux | 2B | 29 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Nick Madrigal | 2B | 30 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | SS | 32 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Nicky Lopez | 2B | 32 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Edmundo Sosa | SS | 31 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Adam Frazier | 2B | 35 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Gary Sánchez | C | 34 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Austin Hedges | C | 34 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Yoán Moncada | 3B | 31 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Luis Rengifo | 3B | 30 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 31 | Below $10M |
| T-50 | Tyrone Taylor | CF | 33 | Below $10M |
Tier 1: Top Ace On The Market
Skubal stands alone
Tarik Skubal is the clear headliner of this free agent class. The distance between him and the next group is substantial, even if it doesn’t quite match Juan Soto’s market dominance two years ago. He’s the strongest free agent starting pitcher since Gerrit Cole. Our forecast puts Skubal at eight years and $370 million, but that could prove conservative if the bidding pushes higher.
A small group above $100 million
We see only six players receiving contracts above $100 million this cycle. Jazz Chisholm ranks second despite a poor overall hitting season: his three years before free agency were better than Bo Bichette’s, and his age, defensive value, underlying metrics and track record keep his ceiling high. He’s also one of the hardest players to rank and price.
Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena are both star-caliber targets. Suzuki’s edge in bat speed, sprint speed and defense gives him a slightly stronger outlook, though the separation is modest. Trevor Rogers and Freddy Peralta project as solid No. 2 starters; Peralta is the higher-upside choice.
Steady veterans, with a few complications
Teruaki Sato, arriving from Japan, compares well with Kazuma Okamoto and could earn slightly more than Okamoto did last year. His defensive position is less certain, which complicates the projection.
Ian Happ, Kevin Gausman, Sonny Gray and Brandon Lowe offer familiar profiles: consistent production with a reasonable expectation that recent results will carry forward. Each comes with a catch. Gausman is considering retirement and might not sign. Lowe has significant platoon limitations. Gray posted his best ERA season, but his strikeout-minus-walk rate fell. Happ has excellent right-handed bat speed, yet his timing remains elusive; a new setting might help him find another gear.
We project Adrián Morejón as a starter. His changeup gained depth in 2026 and became one of the best pitches in baseball. Pitching models broadly view him as an elite combination of stuff and command, backed by a four-pitch mix. He could finish as the second-best starter in the class and substantially exceed our projection.
David Bednar also fits here, though he could receive and accept a qualifying offer. Ryan Jeffers finally put together a healthy season and brings value with his bat. Catchers with his profile rarely land enormous contracts.
Useful pieces, thinner ceilings
Jake Bauers beat the Dodgers and has a case for the tier above, but first base is his only position. He may accept a qualifying offer if Milwaukee extends one. J.P. Crawford’s defense has slipped, yet he’s the only shortstop in this thin class with a full-time track record.
Kaima Taira is the leading pitcher coming from NPB. Like recent NPB free agent Tatsuya Imai, he has questions to answer, with less upside. Foster Griffin showed he can work as a solid mid-rotation starter, but limited velocity and a best-case 2026 leave little room for an optimistic forecast. Clay Holmes should remain a dependable mid-rotation arm: his sinker generates ground balls, though his strikeout rate is limited.
Shota Imanaga’s strikeout rate rebounded, helping steady his value. He’s been above average throughout his MLB career and should remain a useful starter. Trent Grisham’s metrics are striking, but he hasn’t translated them into consistent results on the field. At his age, that gap matters more than the underlying numbers.
Ty France’s strong season came with a .342 BABIP, a figure that may make teams wary of paying for a repeat. Raisel Iglesias remains a durable, reliable closer. Carson Kelly is less likely to draw headlines, but his all-around game could make him a nearly two-win player over 120 to 130 games. Those are the quiet signings that help build winning rosters.
Scarcity will shape the market
Center fielders and shortstops are hard to find in free agency because many players move off those positions as they age. Willy Adames was the last major free agent shortstop, in 2024. The 2023 group—Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson—was an unusual concentration of talent. This year’s shortstop and center field pools are thin, which could strengthen the cases for Trent Grisham, J.P. Crawford, Daulton Varsho and Luis Robert. Robert still has elite tools, but he’s been below average for an extended stretch.
Skubal is the one clear anchor in a starting-pitcher market that gets uncertain quickly. There are capable names in the top 10, but the rest of the field carries plenty of risk. Dustin May is the familiar upside bet: excellent stuff, disappointing results.
The top of the relief market is also less imposing than in recent years, when Edwin Díaz, Devin Williams, Tanner Scott and Josh Hader were available. David Bednar leads this year’s group, offering dependability more than dominance.
Second base is unusually deep, led by impact players Jazz Chisholm and Brandon Lowe. Third base is the opposite: a thin pool with barely five credible options. Teruaki Sato leads it, though his eventual position is uncertain. Eugenio Suárez and Alec Bohm are roster fits, not likely megadeals; Yoán Moncada’s health remains a concern, and Luis Rengifo looks more like a utility player.
First base and designated hitter offer a solid set of choices, with Jake Bauers at the front and Ty France and George Springer carrying some upside. Catcher drops off quickly after Ryan Jeffers and Carson Kelly. Tyler Stephenson could be an intriguing option if he adds a little bat speed. Beyond him, Gary Sánchez is about the only other notable name.
The broad picture is a market shaped by sharp contrasts: one exceptional pitcher, a handful of expensive stars, and position groups where scarcity may matter as much as performance. For teams shopping below the top tier, the best value may come from knowing exactly which flaw they can live with.
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