Chicago’s position-player group gives the Cubs a foundation few teams can match. The harder question is whether they can build a pitching staff strong enough to turn consecutive playoff appearances into a deeper run. Their early exit in San Diego exposed problems on both sides of the ball, but the shortage of impact arms is the clearest gap between Chicago and the National League’s top clubs.
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has made pitching the offseason priority. “We’re leaning on our defense too heavily, and the overall quality of the pitching has to improve,” he said at his end-of-season press conference. Hoyer said the Cubs’ aim is to bring their pitching infrastructure and quality closer to the level of their position-player group, with most of the club’s offseason effort expected to go toward acquiring pitchers.
A rotation with few guaranteed returns
The scale of the task is striking: Chicago could see 15 major-league free agents depart, including enough starters to amount to an entire rotation. That estimate assumes mutual options are declined and Clay Holmes opts out of his $12 million player option, as expected.
Ten Cubs pitchers made at least eight starts this past season. Only Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown and Javier Assad are currently lined up to return. The club can add Colin Rea to that group by exercising a $7.5 million option, though a $1 million buyout makes the decision’s net cost $6.5 million.
Rea has supplied at least 120 innings in each of the past four seasons, with an ERA around or slightly above 4.00. Chicago may balk at paying the full option price. It could instead try to renegotiate a lower figure, as it did early last offseason.
Long-term deals anchor the position-player core
The Cubs have committed heavily to their everyday lineup. Alex Bregman is owed $140 million through 2030, with $70 million deferred from 2034 to 2041. Nico Hoerner’s $138.5 million deal runs through 2032 and includes $10 million in deferrals from 2040 to 2047. Pete Crow-Armstrong is under contract for $110 million through 2032, while Dansby Swanson is owed $78 million through 2029.
Other guaranteed deals include relievers Phil Maton, at $9 million through 2027, and Shelby Miller, at $1.5 million through 2027. Assuming Holmes opts out, Chicago has $108.25 million in guarantees for 2027, including $10 million of Bregman’s salary deferred, and $483 million in total future commitments before future deferrals.
Options and arbitration shape the budget
Besides Holmes’ player option, the Cubs face a series of decisions. They hold a $2.5 million option on reliever Jacob Webb and a $3.3 million option on Assad, who remains arbitration-eligible even if the option is declined. Mutual options include $15 million for left-hander Matthew Boyd, $8 million for right-hander Hunter Harvey, $7.5 million for catcher Carson Kelly and $6 million for left-hander Caleb Thielbar. Rea’s $7.5 million option carries a $1 million buyout.
Eleven players are projected to reach arbitration. The largest estimates belong to Justin Steele at $6.8 million, Michael Busch at $5.4 million and Cabrera at $4.8 million. Braxton Garrett, Javier Assad, Miguel Amaya, Gabriel Arias, Ryan Rolison, Ethan Roberts, Ben Brown and Daniel Palencia round out the group, with estimates ranging from $800,000 to $2.3 million. Garrett, Arias and Roberts are listed as possible non-tender candidates.
Free agency could reshape both the rotation and lineup
The free-agent list stretches beyond the pitching staff. Outfielders Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ, along with designated hitter Michael Conforto and infielder Tyler Austin, are among the position players whose contracts are expiring. The pitching group includes Shota Imanaga, Kevin Gausman, David Peterson, Aaron Civale, Tyrone Taylor, Trent Thornton, Thielbar and Harvey, as well as Boyd, Kelly and Holmes under the stated option assumptions.
Chicago’s central challenge is to replace a large share of its pitching workload while deciding how much of its established lineup it can retain. Hoyer has identified the priority; the decisions on options, free agents and possible Rea negotiations will determine whether the Cubs can give that strong position-player core a more dependable staff.
