Mitch Keller’s 2026 season ended amid a shoulder injury that may help explain his sharp drop in performance. For Pittsburgh, his recovery will shape a rotation built around young starters, while Esmerlyn Valdez’s promising but strikeout-heavy rookie year leaves a clear development priority.
Keller faces a recovery and rebound season
Keller was placed on the 60-day injured list the day before the trade deadline with a teres major strain in his right shoulder. The Pirates gave few details at the time, but Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports that Keller is believed to have suffered a Grade 3 strain, in which the muscle detached from the bone.
He avoided surgery. Doctors instead recommended an extended rest period followed by rehabilitation, with Keller expected to resume throwing late this month and proceed through a normal offseason. He couldn’t identify a specific pitch when the injury occurred, suggesting the problem may have developed while he was still taking the mound.
The numbers point to a difficult year for the usually dependable right-hander. Keller posted a 5.29 ERA across 22 starts, with a career-low 17.7% strikeout rate. His 8.3% walk rate remained respectable, though it was his highest since 2022 after staying below 7% from 2023 through 2025. His average fastball velocity fell to a career-low 93.3 mph and reached just 91.9 mph in his final start.
Keller, 30, has two years and $38 million remaining on his contract. A healthy return would put him alongside Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler in a rotation whose other projected starters are younger. Keller has drawn trade interest in the past, but his 2026 results and season-ending injury could complicate efforts to find a buyer this winter.
His earlier track record offers a reason for Pittsburgh to wait. From 2022 through 2025, Keller threw 707 2/3 innings with a 4.15 ERA and strong rate statistics, averaging 177 innings and 31 starts a season. If he returns to that level, the remaining contract looks manageable for the Pirates.
Valdez is healthy, with contact the next test
Valdez also finished the season on the injured list, sidelined by a hamstring strain. The 22-year-old outfielder told Jason Mackey of MLB.com that he’s recovered and expects no lingering effects. “I’ve been running, hitting normally and catching the ball in the outfield. Everything has been good,” he said.
He plans to play for los Leones del Escogido in the Dominican Winter League. Valdez, who turns 23 in January, skipped winter ball last year but played in Colombia during the 2023-24 offseason. The Dominican season should give him additional at-bats and a chance to test his hamstring as he pursues a regular role in Pittsburgh.
His first major league season offered plenty of power. Valdez hit .232/.345/.510 with 17 home runs in 287 plate appearances, production 30% above average by wRC+. He also hit 13 homers in 237 Triple-A plate appearances, finishing with 30 home runs in 128 games and 524 trips to the plate. His major league batted-ball results were strong: a 91.9 mph average exit velocity and a 49.3% hard-hit rate.
The concern is contact. Valdez struck out in 37.5% of his plate appearances, and his .232 average was supported by a .328 batting average on balls in play and a 26.6% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. His strikeouts weren’t driven by frequent swings at pitches outside the zone; Statcast measured contact on only 71.3% of his swings at strikes, the second-lowest rate among 361 hitters with at least 200 plate appearances.
A 14.6% walk rate helped preserve his on-base percentage, but Valdez will need to make more contact in the zone to hold down an everyday corner-outfield job and a spot in the middle of the lineup. His defense isn’t considered a strength. He enters the offseason as a leading option in right field, with Oneil Cruz in center and Bryan Reynolds in left, though Pittsburgh could add another outfielder.
Pittsburgh adds Astros pitching coach
The Pirates have hired Sean Buchanan from Houston, according to Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Buchanan worked as the Astros’ Triple-A pitching coach and is expected to join Pittsburgh’s upper-level system. The team has not announced his title.
Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported earlier this summer that Buchanan played an important role in Peter Lambert’s breakout with Houston. Before signing a minor league deal with the Astros, Lambert had a 6.28 ERA across 74 major league appearances. He spent 2025 with Japan’s Yakult Swallows, posting a 4.26 ERA in Nippon Professional Baseball, then gave Houston 155 2/3 innings with a 3.82 ERA this season. His strikeout rate was 23.2%, and his walk rate was 8.9%.
Buchanan’s arrival gives Pittsburgh a new coach with recent experience developing a starter who delivered meaningful innings at the major league level. For a club balancing Keller’s return with a young rotation, that experience could matter as it builds out its pitching depth.
